Bahia 2–4 Atletico Torque: Result & Stats

Bahia

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Atletico Torque

Nino Paraíba 47'

Thonny Anderson 2'

N. Guzmán 90+2'

M. Allende 77'

S. Scotto 39'

F. Pizzichillo 25'

5/26/2021

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bahia39%

×Draw23%

Atletico Torque39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BahiaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Torque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

Bahia

1.70

Atletico Torque

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.11

creates per match

2.29

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Bahia

2.11

Atletico Torque

2.29

allows per match

Bahia

1.11

Atletico Torque

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia+0.00on par

Atletico Torque+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia ↓

Atletico Torque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Bahia or draw

61%

Bahia or Atletico Torque

77%

Draw or Atletico Torque

61%

Winning margin

Bahia wins by 2+

20%

Atletico Torque wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bahia 1+ goals

82%

Bahia 2+ goals

51%

Bahia 3+ goals

24%

Atletico Torque 1+ goals

82%

Atletico Torque 2+ goals

51%

Atletico Torque 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Bahia (draw refunded)

50%

Atletico Torque (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Atletico Torque away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia attack 2.11 + Atletico Torque defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.70

Atletico Torque attack 2.29 + Bahia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bahia scores more

39%

level

23%

Atletico Torque scores more

39%

Bahia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Álvarez

Atletico Torque · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Thonny Anderson

2'

Thonny Anderson↳ Thaciano

20'

Matheus Bahia

25'

F. Pizzichillo↳ G. Del Prete

28'

Matheus Bahia

28'

Matheus Bahia

32'

Juninho Capixaba← Thonny Anderson

35'

Alfonso Pereira

39'

S. Scotto↳ J. Álvarez

46'

N. Guzmán← S. Scotto

47'

Nino Paraíba↳ Daniel

52'

Renan Guedes← Nino Paraíba

53'

Germán Conti

57'

Ó. Ruíz← Rossi

58'

Maycon← Thaciano

58'

Lucas Fonseca← Daniel

60'

M. Cóccaro← D. Pereira

65'

Gastón Guruceaga

67'

C. Fiermarin← Á. Brun

69'

Franco Pizzichillo

77'

M. Allende

79'

Gustavo del Prete

83'

J. Pereyra← M. Allende

83'

S. Guerrero← G. Del Prete

86'

Patrick de Lucca

90'

Diego Arismendi

90+2'

N. Guzmán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BahiaAtletico

Overview

37%Possession63%

13Total Shots17

3Corners7

16Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots17

6On Target8

5Off Target3

2Blocked6

9Inside Box14

4Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

276Total Passes461

208Accurate Passes391

75%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls19

4Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Bahia vs Atletico Torque

Atletico Torque beat Bahia 4-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 26, 2021.

Goals: Thonny Anderson (2'), F. Pizzichillo (25'), S. Scotto (39'), Nino Paraíba (47'), M. Allende (77'), N. Guzmán (90+2').

Atletico Torque controlled possession (63%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.

Bahia vs Atletico Torque — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bahia vs Atletico Torque