Atletico Torque 1–1 Bahia: Result & Stats

Atletico Torque

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bahia

F. Pizzichillo 51'

Rodriguinho 9'

4/22/2021

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atletico Torque55%

×Draw31%

Bahia14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TorqueExpected goals in this matchBahia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.47

Atletico Torque

1.21

Bahia

0.47

Atletico Torque creates 157% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.63

creates per match

0.56

0.38

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Atletico Torque

1.63

Bahia

0.56

allows per match

Atletico Torque

0.38

Bahia

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Torque+0.00on par

Bahia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Torque ↓

Bahia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–111%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Atletico Torque or draw

86%

Atletico Torque or Bahia

69%

Draw or Bahia

45%

Winning margin

Atletico Torque wins by 2+

25%

Bahia wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Atletico Torque 1+ goals

70%

Atletico Torque 2+ goals

34%

Atletico Torque 3+ goals

12%

Bahia 1+ goals

37%

Bahia 2+ goals

8%

Bahia 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Atletico Torque (draw refunded)

79%

Bahia (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Torque at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Bahia away — creates 0.56, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Torque attack 1.63 + Bahia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bahia attack 0.56 + Atletico Torque defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atletico Torque scores more

55%

level

31%

Bahia scores more

14%

Atletico Torque at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atletico Torque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Arismendi

Atletico Torque · D

7.6

Match Events

9'

Rodriguinho↳ Gilberto

11'

Patrick de Lucca

37'

Santiago Rodriguez

43'

Rodriguinho

46'

Lucas Araújo← Patrick de Lucca

51'

F. Pizzichillo

59'

Álvaro Brun

72'

M. Cóccaro← G. Del Prete

72'

Alesson← Ó. Ruíz

78'

J. Cejas← S. Rodríguez

79'

D. Pereira← M. Allende

84'

João Pedro← Nino Paraíba

84'

Matheus Galdezani← Thaciano

85'

Matheus Galdezani

90'

L. Rodríguez← A. Teuten

90'

Juninho Capixaba← Rodriguinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoBahia

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots8

3Corners2

15Fouls24

Shots

15Total Shots8

4On Target2

5Off Target3

6Blocked3

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

568Total Passes308

472Accurate Passes226

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls24

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Atletico Torque vs Bahia

Atletico Torque and Bahia drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 22, 2021.

Goals: Rodriguinho (9'), F. Pizzichillo (51').

Atletico Torque controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera in Montevideo.

Atletico Torque vs Bahia — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Torque vs Bahia