Bahia 0–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Bahia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

7/16/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Knockout Round Play-offsArena Fonte Nova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bahia54%

×Draw24%

America de Cali22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BahiaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.01

Bahia

1.73

America de Cali

1.01

Bahia creates 71% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.11

creates per match

0.91

1.11

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Bahia

2.11

America de Cali

0.91

allows per match

Bahia

1.11

America de Cali

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bahia or draw

78%

Bahia or America de Cali

76%

Draw or America de Cali

46%

Winning margin

Bahia wins by 2+

30%

America de Cali wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bahia 1+ goals

82%

Bahia 2+ goals

52%

Bahia 3+ goals

25%

America de Cali 1+ goals

64%

America de Cali 2+ goals

27%

America de Cali 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bahia (draw refunded)

71%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia attack 2.11 + America de Cali defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.73

America de Cali attack 0.91 + Bahia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bahia scores more

54%

level

24%

America de Cali scores more

22%

Bahia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff