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America de Cali vs Bahia — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bahia
Bahia
7/23/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Knockout Round Play-offsEstadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

America de Cali38%
×Draw35%
Bahia26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
0.89
Bahia
0.68

America de Cali creates 31% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.00
Bahia
0.56

allows per match

America de Cali
0.80
Bahia
0.78

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Bahia+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Bahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
74%
America de Cali or Bahia
65%
Draw or Bahia
62%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
14%
Bahia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
59%
America de Cali 2+ goals
22%
America de Cali 3+ goals
6%
Bahia 1+ goals
49%
Bahia 2+ goals
15%
Bahia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
59%
Bahia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Bahia away — creates 0.56, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.00 + Bahia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Bahia attack 0.56 + America de Cali defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

America de Cali scores more
38%
level
35%
Bahia scores more
26%

America de Cali at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America de Cali vs Bahia

America de Cali beat Bahia 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Cali.