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Bahia U17 vs Sao Paulo U17 — Copa do Brasil U17 2025

Bahia U17
Bahia U17
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Sao Paulo U17
Sao Paulo U17
Richarllyson 90+3', 69'
Dell 21', 2'
L. Guilherme 67'
J. Brenno 66', 49'
Angelo Candido 55'
4/22/2025Copa do Brasil U17Copa do Brasil U17 · Semi-finalsEstádio Jodilton Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bahia U1763%
×Draw18%
Sao Paulo U1719%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia U17
2.67
Sao Paulo U17
1.44

Bahia U17 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bahia U17
4.00
Sao Paulo U17
1.67

allows per match

Bahia U17
1.20
Sao Paulo U17
1.33

finishing

Bahia U17+0.00on par
Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 77Under: 2377%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 71No: 2971%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U17 ↓

Sao Paulo U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Bahia U17 or draw
81%
Bahia U17 or Sao Paulo U17
82%
Draw or Sao Paulo U17
37%

Winning margin

Bahia U17 wins by 2+
42%
Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bahia U17 1+ goals
93%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
74%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
49%
Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals
76%
Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals
42%
Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
77%
Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U17 at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Sao Paulo U17 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U17 attack 4.00 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.67 + Bahia U17 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bahia U17 scores more
63%
level
18%
Sao Paulo U17 scores more
19%

Bahia U17 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bahia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Dell
21'
Dell
49'
J. Brenno
55'
Angelo Candido
66'
J. Brenno
67'
L. Guilherme
69'
Richarllyson
90+3'
Richarllyson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bahia U17 vs Sao Paulo U17

Bahia U17 and Sao Paulo U17 drew 4-4 in Copa do Brasil U17 on April 22, 2025.

Goals: Dell (2', 21'), J. Brenno (49', 66'), Angelo Candido (55'), L. Guilherme (67'), Richarllyson (69', 90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Jodilton Souza in Feira de Santana, Bahia.