Bahia U17 3–2 Sao Paulo U17: Result & Stats

Bahia U17

FT

3 – 2

Sao Paulo U17

7/9/2024

Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 2Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bahia U1731%

×Draw23%

Sao Paulo U1746%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bahia U17Expected goals in this matchSao Paulo U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.79

Bahia U17

1.45

Sao Paulo U17

1.79

Sao Paulo U17 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.61

creates per match

1.59

2.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Bahia U17

1.61

Sao Paulo U17

1.59

allows per match

Bahia U17

2.00

Sao Paulo U17

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia U17+0.00on par

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U17 ↓

Sao Paulo U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bahia U17 or draw

54%

Bahia U17 or Sao Paulo U17

77%

Draw or Sao Paulo U17

69%

Winning margin

Bahia U17 wins by 2+

14%

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Bahia U17 1+ goals

77%

Bahia U17 2+ goals

42%

Bahia U17 3+ goals

18%

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals

83%

Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals

53%

Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Bahia U17 (draw refunded)

41%

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U17 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Sao Paulo U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U17 attack 1.61 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.59 + Bahia U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bahia U17 scores more

31%

level

23%

Sao Paulo U17 scores more

46%

Sao Paulo U17 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sao Paulo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff