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Baghdad vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2020

Baghdad
Baghdad
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Erbil
Erbil
Ashar Ali 90+2'
Mohammad Qasem 89', 68'
Sherko Kareem 44'
5/26/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 32Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Baghdad34%
×Draw29%
Erbil37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baghdad
1.07
Erbil
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 110 away

creates per match

Baghdad
0.86
Erbil
1.11

allows per match

Baghdad
1.12
Erbil
1.29

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw
63%
Baghdad or Erbil
71%
Draw or Erbil
66%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+
13%
Erbil wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals
66%
Baghdad 2+ goals
29%
Baghdad 3+ goals
9%
Erbil 1+ goals
67%
Erbil 2+ goals
31%
Erbil 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)
48%
Erbil (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.12 · 77 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.86 + Erbil defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Erbil attack 1.11 + Baghdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Baghdad scores more
34%
level
29%
Erbil scores more
37%

Erbil at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
Sherko Kareem
68'
Mohammad Qasem
89'
Mohammad Qasem
90+2'
Ashar Ali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baghdad 1 – 3 Erbil

Erbil beat Baghdad 3-1 in Iraqi League on May 26, 2024.

Goals: Sherko Kareem (44'), Mohammad Qasem (68', 89'), Ashar Ali (90+2').

The match was played at Al-Madina International Stadium in Baghdad.