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Erbil vs Baghdad — Iraqi League 2025

Erbil
Erbil
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baghdad
Baghdad
C. John 80', 66'
J. Govand 62'
J. Kareem 82'
6/2/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 38Franso Hariri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Erbil50%
×Draw25%
Baghdad25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbil
1.62
Baghdad
1.08

Erbil creates 50% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 35 away

creates per match

Erbil
1.44
Baghdad
0.94

allows per match

Erbil
1.22
Baghdad
1.80

finishing

Erbil+0.00on par
Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbil ↓

Baghdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Erbil or draw
75%
Erbil or Baghdad
75%
Draw or Baghdad
50%

Winning margin

Erbil wins by 2+
26%
Baghdad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Erbil 1+ goals
80%
Erbil 2+ goals
48%
Erbil 3+ goals
22%
Baghdad 1+ goals
66%
Baghdad 2+ goals
29%
Baghdad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Erbil (draw refunded)
66%
Baghdad (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbil at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.80 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbil attack 1.44 + Baghdad defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.62

Baghdad attack 0.94 + Erbil defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Erbil scores more
50%
level
25%
Baghdad scores more
25%

Erbil at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
J. Govand
66'
C. John
80'
C. John
82'
J. Kareem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erbil vs Baghdad

Erbil beat Baghdad 3-1 in Iraqi League on June 2, 2026.

Goals: J. Govand (62'), C. John (66', 80'), J. Kareem (82').

The match was played at Franso Hariri Stadium in Arbil.