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Baghdad vs Duhok — Iraqi League 2025

Baghdad
Baghdad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Duhok
Duhok
M. Abdel Amir 60', 7' (pen)
S. Hadi 45'
4/12/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Baghdad31%
×Draw26%
Duhok43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baghdad
1.15
Duhok
1.42

Duhok creates 23% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

creates per match

Baghdad
1.04
Duhok
1.33

allows per match

Baghdad
1.50
Duhok
1.26

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par
Duhok+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Duhok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw
57%
Baghdad or Duhok
74%
Draw or Duhok
69%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+
12%
Duhok wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals
68%
Baghdad 2+ goals
32%
Baghdad 3+ goals
11%
Duhok 1+ goals
76%
Duhok 2+ goals
41%
Duhok 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)
41%
Duhok (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

Duhok away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 1.04 + Duhok defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Duhok attack 1.33 + Baghdad defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baghdad scores more
31%
level
26%
Duhok scores more
43%

Duhok at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. Abdel AmirPenalty
45'
S. Hadi
60'
M. Abdel Amir

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Baghdad 2–1 Duhok

Baghdad beat Duhok 2-1 in Iraqi League on April 12, 2026.

Goals: M. Abdel Amir (7' pen, 60'), S. Hadi (45').