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Baghdad vs Duhok — Iraqi League 2025

Baghdad
Baghdad
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Duhok
Duhok
Hussein Ziyad 90+2'
O. Alabi 87'
Jabar Kareem 53'
I. Louati 43' (pen)
5/1/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 25Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Baghdad32%
×Draw27%
Duhok41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baghdad
1.15
Duhok
1.35

Duhok creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Baghdad
0.94
Duhok
1.30

allows per match

Baghdad
1.41
Duhok
1.36

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par
Duhok+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Duhok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw
59%
Baghdad or Duhok
73%
Draw or Duhok
68%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+
13%
Duhok wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals
68%
Baghdad 2+ goals
32%
Baghdad 3+ goals
11%
Duhok 1+ goals
74%
Duhok 2+ goals
39%
Duhok 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)
44%
Duhok (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Duhok away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.94 + Duhok defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Duhok attack 1.30 + Baghdad defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Baghdad scores more
32%
level
27%
Duhok scores more
41%

Duhok at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
23'
43'
I. LouatiPenalty
53'
Jabar Kareem
87'
O. Alabi
90+2'
Hussein Ziyad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baghdad 2 – 2 Duhok

Baghdad and Duhok drew 2-2 in Iraqi League on May 1, 2024.

Goals: I. Louati (43' pen), Jabar Kareem (53'), O. Alabi (87'), Hussein Ziyad (90+2').

The match was played at Al-Madina International Stadium in Baghdad.