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Baghdad vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2023

Baghdad
Baghdad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
Jasem Mohammad Okla 34'
Hussain Taleb 79'
Sttar Jabbar 52' (pen)
12/14/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 9Amanat Baghdad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Baghdad36%
×Draw29%
Al Najaf35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baghdad
1.10
Al Najaf
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 58 away

creates per match

Baghdad
0.98
Al Najaf
0.86

allows per match

Baghdad
1.32
Al Najaf
1.22

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw
65%
Baghdad or Al Najaf
71%
Draw or Al Najaf
64%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+
14%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals
67%
Baghdad 2+ goals
30%
Baghdad 3+ goals
10%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
66%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
30%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)
50%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.98 + Al Najaf defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al Najaf attack 0.86 + Baghdad defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Baghdad scores more
36%
level
29%
Al Najaf scores more
35%

Baghdad at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Baghdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Jasem Mohammad Okla
52'
Sttar JabbarPenalty
79'
Hussain Taleb

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Baghdad 1–2 Al Najaf

Al Najaf beat Baghdad 2-1 in Iraqi League on December 14, 2023.

Goals: Jasem Mohammad Okla (34'), Sttar Jabbar (52' pen), Hussain Taleb (79').

The match was played at Amanat Baghdad Stadium in Bagdad.