Al Najaf 1–1 Baghdad: Result & Stats | Iraqi League

Al Najaf

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Baghdad

Mohammed Qasim 45'

F. Deda 33'

4/23/2024

Iraqi League · Round 23Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Al Najaf45%

×Draw26%

Baghdad29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NajafExpected goals in this matchBaghdad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.16

Al Najaf

1.50

Baghdad

1.16

Al Najaf creates 29% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 37 away

1.23

creates per match

0.92

1.40

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Al Najaf

1.23

Baghdad

0.92

allows per match

Al Najaf

1.40

Baghdad

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Najaf+0.00on par

Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najaf ↓

Baghdad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al Najaf or draw

71%

Al Najaf or Baghdad

74%

Draw or Baghdad

55%

Winning margin

Al Najaf wins by 2+

22%

Baghdad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Najaf 1+ goals

78%

Al Najaf 2+ goals

44%

Al Najaf 3+ goals

19%

Baghdad 1+ goals

69%

Baghdad 2+ goals

32%

Baghdad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al Najaf (draw refunded)

61%

Baghdad (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najaf at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.78 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najaf attack 1.23 + Baghdad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Baghdad attack 0.92 + Al Najaf defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Najaf scores more

45%

level

26%

Baghdad scores more

29%

Al Najaf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

F. Deda

45'

Mohammed Qasim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff