Baghdad 0–0 Al Minaa Basra: Result & Stats

Baghdad

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Minaa Basra

2/6/2026

Iraqi League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Baghdad38%

×Draw28%

Al Minaa Basra34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaghdadExpected goals in this matchAl Minaa Basra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Baghdad

1.23

Al Minaa Basra

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

1.14

creates per match

0.75

1.55

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Baghdad

1.14

Al Minaa Basra

0.75

allows per match

Baghdad

1.55

Al Minaa Basra

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Al Minaa Basra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw

66%

Baghdad or Al Minaa Basra

72%

Draw or Al Minaa Basra

62%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+

16%

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals

71%

Baghdad 2+ goals

35%

Baghdad 3+ goals

13%

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals

68%

Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals

32%

Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)

53%

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 1.14 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.75 + Baghdad defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Baghdad scores more

38%

level

28%

Al Minaa Basra scores more

34%

Baghdad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baghdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'

M. Qasem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff