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Al Minaa Basra vs Baghdad — Iraqi League 2025

Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baghdad
Baghdad
R. Majji 87'
Y. Samia 78', 72', 48'
4/21/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Al Minaa Basra46%
×Draw26%
Baghdad27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Minaa Basra
1.46
Baghdad
1.06

Al Minaa Basra creates 38% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.04
Baghdad
0.96

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.17
Baghdad
1.89

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par
Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Baghdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw
73%
Al Minaa Basra or Baghdad
74%
Draw or Baghdad
54%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
23%
Baghdad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
77%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
43%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
18%
Baghdad 1+ goals
65%
Baghdad 2+ goals
29%
Baghdad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
63%
Baghdad (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.04 + Baghdad defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.46

Baghdad attack 0.96 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more
46%
level
26%
Baghdad scores more
27%

Al Minaa Basra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
Y. Samia↳ T. Kisinda
72'
Y. Samia
78'
Y. Samia↳ T. Kisinda
87'
R. Majji

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Minaa Basra vs Baghdad

Al Minaa Basra beat Baghdad 4-0 in Iraqi League on April 21, 2026.

Goals: Y. Samia (48', 72', 78'), R. Majji (87').