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Baghdad vs Al Diwaniya — Iraqi League 2020

Baghdad
Baghdad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Diwaniya
Al Diwaniya
Anas Malek 90+1' (pen)
6/22/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 37Amanat Baghdad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Baghdad48%
×Draw28%
Al Diwaniya24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baghdad
1.35
Al Diwaniya
0.85

Baghdad creates 59% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 53 away

creates per match

Baghdad
0.85
Al Diwaniya
0.58

allows per match

Baghdad
1.12
Al Diwaniya
1.85

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par
Al Diwaniya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Al Diwaniya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw
76%
Baghdad or Al Diwaniya
72%
Draw or Al Diwaniya
52%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+
23%
Al Diwaniya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals
74%
Baghdad 2+ goals
39%
Baghdad 3+ goals
15%
Al Diwaniya 1+ goals
57%
Al Diwaniya 2+ goals
21%
Al Diwaniya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)
67%
Al Diwaniya (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.12 · 78 matches

Al Diwaniya away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.85 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.85 + Al Diwaniya defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al Diwaniya attack 0.58 + Baghdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Baghdad scores more
48%
level
28%
Al Diwaniya scores more
24%

Baghdad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Baghdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+1'
Anas MalekPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baghdad 0 – 1 Al Diwaniya

Al Diwaniya beat Baghdad 1-0 in Iraqi League on June 22, 2022.

Goals: Anas Malek (90+1' pen).

The match was played at Amanat Baghdad Stadium in Bagdad.