Baghdad 1–1 Al Diwaniya: Result & Stats

Baghdad

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al Diwaniya

1/16/2021

Iraqi League · Round 14Amanat Baghdad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Baghdad49%

×Draw28%

Al Diwaniya23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaghdadExpected goals in this matchAl Diwaniya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.85

Baghdad

1.37

Al Diwaniya

0.85

Baghdad creates 61% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 52 away

0.86

creates per match

0.58

1.12

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Baghdad

0.86

Al Diwaniya

0.58

allows per match

Baghdad

1.12

Al Diwaniya

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par

Al Diwaniya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Al Diwaniya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw

77%

Baghdad or Al Diwaniya

72%

Draw or Al Diwaniya

51%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+

24%

Al Diwaniya wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals

75%

Baghdad 2+ goals

40%

Baghdad 3+ goals

16%

Al Diwaniya 1+ goals

57%

Al Diwaniya 2+ goals

21%

Al Diwaniya 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)

68%

Al Diwaniya (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.12 · 77 matches

Al Diwaniya away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.86 + Al Diwaniya defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Al Diwaniya attack 0.58 + Baghdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Baghdad scores more

49%

level

28%

Al Diwaniya scores more

23%

Baghdad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Baghdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff