Bafmeng United vs Aigle Royal de Moungo — Elite Two 2020
Elite Two · Round 10Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 22+ matches
Bafmeng United40%
Aigle Royal de Moungo34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bafmeng United creates 10% more chances
Season form · 31 home / 22 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bafmeng United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bafmeng United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 31 matches
Aigle Royal de Moungo away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bafmeng United attack 1.39 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38
Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 1.64 + Bafmeng United defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Bafmeng United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Bafmeng United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
APEJES Academy
Union Abong-Mbang
Bamboutos
Sable
Atlantic
Avion AcademyBafmeng United
Les Astres
Tonnerre
Kumba
Yafoot
FAP
Union Douala
Foncha ST
Racing
Eding Sport
Fovu Club
ISOHSAIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bafmeng United host Aigle Royal de Moungo on Wednesday, 20 December 2023 at 14:00. The match is part of the Elite Two 2020/2021 season.
Elite Two: Bafmeng United 1–0 Aigle Royal de Moungo
Bafmeng United beat Aigle Royal de Moungo 1-0 in Elite Two on December 20, 2023.