Aigle Royal de Moungo vs Bafmeng United — Elite Two 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Aigle Royal de Moungo49%
Bafmeng United25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Aigle Royal de Moungo creates 49% more chances
Season form · 23 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Aigle Royal de Moungo ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Aigle Royal de Moungo at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches
Bafmeng United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 1.57 + Bafmeng United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.55
Bafmeng United attack 1.03 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Aigle Royal de Moungo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Aigle Royal de Moungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
APEJES Academy
Union Abong-Mbang
Bamboutos
Sable
Atlantic
Avion AcademyBafmeng United
Les Astres
Tonnerre
Kumba
Yafoot
FAP
Union Douala
Foncha ST
Racing
Eding Sport
Fovu Club
ISOHSAIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Aigle Royal de Moungo host Bafmeng United on Monday, 1 April 2024 at 12:30. The match is part of the Elite Two 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Aigle Royal de Moungo vs Bafmeng United
Aigle Royal de Moungo beat Bafmeng United 2-0 in Elite Two on April 1, 2024.