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Bafmeng United vs Aigle Royal — Elite Two 2020

Bafmeng United
Bafmeng United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
1/5/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bafmeng United42%
×Draw28%
Aigle Royal31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bafmeng United
1.31
Aigle Royal
1.08

Bafmeng United creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bafmeng United
1.39
Aigle Royal
1.29

allows per match

Bafmeng United
0.87
Aigle Royal
1.24

finishing

Bafmeng United+0.00on par
Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bafmeng United ↓

Aigle Royal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bafmeng United or draw
69%
Bafmeng United or Aigle Royal
72%
Draw or Aigle Royal
58%

Winning margin

Bafmeng United wins by 2+
19%
Aigle Royal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bafmeng United 1+ goals
73%
Bafmeng United 2+ goals
38%
Bafmeng United 3+ goals
14%
Aigle Royal 1+ goals
66%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
29%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bafmeng United (draw refunded)
58%
Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bafmeng United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 31 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bafmeng United attack 1.39 + Aigle Royal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Aigle Royal attack 1.29 + Bafmeng United defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bafmeng United scores more
42%
level
28%
Aigle Royal scores more
31%

Bafmeng United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bafmeng United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bafmeng United vs Aigle Royal

Bafmeng United and Aigle Royal drew 0-0 in Elite Two on January 5, 2025.