Aigle Royal 2–1 Bafmeng United: Result & Stats

Aigle Royal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bafmeng United

3/22/2025

Elite Two · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aigle Royal50%

×Draw26%

Bafmeng United24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aigle RoyalExpected goals in this matchBafmeng United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.96

Aigle Royal

1.52

Bafmeng United

0.96

Aigle Royal creates 58% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

1.50

creates per match

1.03

0.89

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Aigle Royal

1.50

Bafmeng United

1.03

allows per match

Aigle Royal

0.89

Bafmeng United

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Bafmeng United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Bafmeng United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw

76%

Aigle Royal or Bafmeng United

74%

Draw or Bafmeng United

50%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

26%

Bafmeng United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

78%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

45%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

20%

Bafmeng United 1+ goals

62%

Bafmeng United 2+ goals

25%

Bafmeng United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

68%

Bafmeng United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Bafmeng United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.50 + Bafmeng United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bafmeng United attack 1.03 + Aigle Royal defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aigle Royal scores more

50%

level

26%

Bafmeng United scores more

24%

Aigle Royal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff