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Baderan Tehran vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
1 – 0
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
4/23/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 33Ghadir Tehran Stadium (Tehran)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Baderan Tehran41%
×Draw33%
Aluminium Arak27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.02
Aluminium Arak
0.76

Baderan Tehran creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Aluminium Arak
0.63

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Aluminium Arak
0.78

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
73%
Baderan Tehran or Aluminium Arak
67%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
59%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
16%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
64%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
27%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
8%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
53%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
18%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
61%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Aluminium Arak attack 0.63 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
41%
level
33%
Aluminium Arak scores more
27%

Baderan Tehran at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baderan Tehran vs Aluminium Arak

Baderan Tehran beat Aluminium Arak 1-0 in Azadegan League on April 23, 2019.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium (Tehran).