Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aluminium Arak vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
1 – 1
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
12/8/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Imam Khomeini Stadium (Arak)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aluminium Arak46%
×Draw29%
Baderan Tehran26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
1.29
Baderan Tehran
0.89

Aluminium Arak creates 45% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
1.47
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.56
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
74%
Aluminium Arak or Baderan Tehran
71%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
54%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
21%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
72%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
37%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
14%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
59%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
22%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
64%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.56 · 32 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 1.47 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
46%
level
29%
Baderan Tehran scores more
26%

Aluminium Arak at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Aluminium Arak 1–1 Baderan Tehran

Aluminium Arak and Baderan Tehran drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium (Arak).