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Badalona II vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Badalona II
Badalona II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pobla Mafumet
Pobla Mafumet
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 32Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Badalona II46%
×Draw27%
Pobla Mafumet28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badalona II
1.42
Pobla Mafumet
1.04

Badalona II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 76 away

creates per match

Badalona II
1.49
Pobla Mafumet
1.07

allows per match

Badalona II
1.00
Pobla Mafumet
1.34

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par
Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

Pobla Mafumet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw
72%
Badalona II or Pobla Mafumet
73%
Draw or Pobla Mafumet
54%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+
22%
Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals
76%
Badalona II 2+ goals
41%
Badalona II 3+ goals
17%
Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals
65%
Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals
28%
Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)
62%
Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Badalona II scores more
46%
level
27%
Pobla Mafumet scores more
28%

Badalona II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Badalona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 3–0 Pobla Mafumet

Badalona II beat Pobla Mafumet 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.