Badalona II 2–2 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

Badalona II

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Pobla Mafumet

Khalid Noureddine 83', 46'

Guzmán 45', 8'

1/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Badalona II46%

×Draw27%

Pobla Mafumet28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Badalona IIExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.04

Badalona II

1.42

Pobla Mafumet

1.04

Badalona II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 76 away

1.49

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Badalona II

1.49

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Badalona II

1.00

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw

72%

Badalona II or Pobla Mafumet

73%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

54%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+

22%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals

76%

Badalona II 2+ goals

41%

Badalona II 3+ goals

17%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

65%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

28%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)

62%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Badalona II scores more

46%

level

27%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

28%

Badalona II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Badalona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Guzmán

45'

Guzmán

46'

Daniel Peña← I. Nemoto

46'

Albert Querol← Monne

46'

Khalid Noureddine

57'

Gerardo de la Torre← Guzmán

65'

Carlos Martinez← Marc Angles

65'

Walid Meddeb← Bilal Charreh

67'

Danilo Luís← Sergi Quirós

67'

Gerard Urbina← Hamza Bellari

74'

Lorca← Iván Amoedo

83'

Khalid Noureddine

85'

W. Suzuki← Khalid Noureddine

85'

Adrià Prado← Arnau Roca

Badalona

Pobla

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Noureddin

▼

Charreh

Manager: Santi Álvarez

46'▲Daniel Peña←▼I. Nemoto

65'▲Carlos Martinez←▼Marc Angles

65'▲Walid Meddeb←▼Bilal Charreh

85'▲W. Suzuki←▼Khalid Noureddine

85'▲Adrià Prado←▼Arnau Roca

Badalona II substitutes

PeñaMartinezMeddebSuzukiPrado

Manager: Adolfo Baines

46'▲Albert Querol←▼Monne

57'▲Gerardo de la Torre←▼Guzmán

67'▲Danilo Luís←▼Sergi Quirós

67'▲Gerard Urbina←▼Hamza Bellari

74'▲Lorca←▼Iván Amoedo

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

QuerolTorreLuísUrbinaLorca

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 2–2 Pobla Mafumet

Badalona II and Pobla Mafumet drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 8, 2023.

Goals: Guzmán (8', 45'), Khalid Noureddine (46', 83').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.

Badalona II vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 2–2 Pobla Mafumet