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Badajoz vs AD Ceuta FC — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Badajoz
Badajoz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
10/9/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Badajoz42%
×Draw28%
AD Ceuta FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz
1.27
AD Ceuta FC
1.02

Badajoz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Badajoz
1.18
AD Ceuta FC
1.11

allows per match

Badajoz
0.92
AD Ceuta FC
1.37

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw
70%
Badajoz or AD Ceuta FC
72%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
58%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+
19%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals
72%
Badajoz 2+ goals
36%
Badajoz 3+ goals
14%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
64%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
27%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)
59%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 1.18 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.11 + Badajoz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Badajoz scores more
42%
level
28%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
30%

Badajoz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Badajoz 2–1 AD Ceuta FC

Badajoz beat AD Ceuta FC 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero in Badajoz.