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AD Ceuta FC vs Badajoz — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Badajoz
Badajoz
4/16/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

AD Ceuta FC47%
×Draw26%
Badajoz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Ceuta FC
1.48
Badajoz
1.06

AD Ceuta FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC
1.68
Badajoz
0.76

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC
1.37
Badajoz
1.27

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw
73%
AD Ceuta FC or Badajoz
74%
Draw or Badajoz
53%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
23%
Badajoz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
77%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
43%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
19%
Badajoz 1+ goals
65%
Badajoz 2+ goals
29%
Badajoz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
63%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.68 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Badajoz attack 0.76 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more
47%
level
26%
Badajoz scores more
27%

AD Ceuta FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: AD Ceuta FC 3–0 Badajoz

AD Ceuta FC beat Badajoz 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.