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Bačka 1901 vs Omladinac NB — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Bačka 1901
Bačka 1901
FT
0 – 0
Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
8/15/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 1Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bačka 190141%
×Draw27%
Omladinac NB32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bačka 1901
1.35
Omladinac NB
1.17

Bačka 1901 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 103 away

creates per match

Bačka 1901
1.61
Omladinac NB
1.09

allows per match

Bačka 1901
1.25
Omladinac NB
1.10

finishing

Bačka 1901+0.00on par
Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bačka 1901 ↓

Omladinac NB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bačka 1901 or draw
68%
Bačka 1901 or Omladinac NB
73%
Draw or Omladinac NB
59%

Winning margin

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+
19%
Omladinac NB wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bačka 1901 1+ goals
74%
Bačka 1901 2+ goals
39%
Bačka 1901 3+ goals
15%
Omladinac NB 1+ goals
69%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
33%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)
56%
Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bačka 1901 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bačka 1901 attack 1.61 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Bačka 1901 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bačka 1901 scores more
41%
level
27%
Omladinac NB scores more
32%

Bačka 1901 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bačka 1901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Bačka 1901 0–0 Omladinac NB

Bačka 1901 and Omladinac NB drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije in Subotica.