B36 Torshavn 1–0 Vikingur Gota: Result & Stats

B36 Torshavn

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vikingur Gota

B. Poulsen 13'

4/3/2025

Meistaradeildin · Round 4Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

B36 Torshavn37%

×Draw24%

Vikingur Gota39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

B36 TorshavnExpected goals in this matchVikingur Gota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.58

B36 Torshavn

1.54

Vikingur Gota

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

2.01

creates per match

2.01

1.16

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

B36 Torshavn

2.01

Vikingur Gota

2.01

allows per match

B36 Torshavn

1.16

Vikingur Gota

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

B36 Torshavn+0.00on par

Vikingur Gota+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B36 Torshavn ↓

Vikingur Gota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

B36 Torshavn or draw

61%

B36 Torshavn or Vikingur Gota

76%

Draw or Vikingur Gota

63%

Winning margin

B36 Torshavn wins by 2+

18%

Vikingur Gota wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

B36 Torshavn 1+ goals

79%

B36 Torshavn 2+ goals

45%

B36 Torshavn 3+ goals

20%

Vikingur Gota 1+ goals

79%

Vikingur Gota 2+ goals

47%

Vikingur Gota 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

B36 Torshavn (draw refunded)

49%

Vikingur Gota (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B36 Torshavn at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.16 · 103 matches

Vikingur Gota away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B36 Torshavn attack 2.01 + Vikingur Gota defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vikingur Gota attack 2.01 + B36 Torshavn defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

B36 Torshavn scores more

37%

level

24%

Vikingur Gota scores more

39%

Vikingur Gota at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vikingur Gota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

B. Poulsen

22'

M. Hellisdal

23'

O. Bardarson

42'

I. Jonhardsson← B. Gregersen

50'

J. Gullfoss← F. Đorđević

63'

J. Johansen

64'

J. Nielsen← J. Johansen

64'

S. Radosavljević← O. Bárðarson

65'

S. Solheim

70'

P. Petersen

71'

B. Heinesen← M. Lindh

71'

J. Joensen← R. Samuelsen

84'

R. Hansen← B. Poulsen

88'

R. Hansen← Á. Atlason

B36

Vikingur

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Joensen

50'▲J. Gullfoss←▼F. Đorđević

71'▲B. Heinesen←▼M. Lindh

71'▲J. Joensen←▼R. Samuelsen

84'▲R. Hansen←▼B. Poulsen

B36 Torshavn substitutes

GullfossHeinesenJoensenHansenJørgensenEnevoldsenEliasen

Manager: J. Poulsen

42'▲I. Jonhardsson←▼B. Gregersen

64'▲J. Nielsen←▼J. Johansen

64'▲S. Radosavljević←▼O. Bárðarson

88'▲R. Hansen←▼Á. Atlason

Vikingur Gota substitutes

JonhardssonNielsenRadosavljevićHansenBrandssonArngrímssonLervig