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B36 II vs 07 Vestur II — 1. Deild 2019

B36 II
B36 II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
07 Vestur II
07 Vestur II
5/10/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 9Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

B36 II63%
×Draw20%
07 Vestur II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B36 II
2.17
07 Vestur II
1.05

B36 II creates 107% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 28 away

creates per match

B36 II
1.85
07 Vestur II
0.43

allows per match

B36 II
1.68
07 Vestur II
2.50

finishing

B36 II+0.00on par
07 Vestur II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B36 II ↓

07 Vestur II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

B36 II or draw
83%
B36 II or 07 Vestur II
80%
Draw or 07 Vestur II
37%

Winning margin

B36 II wins by 2+
39%
07 Vestur II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

B36 II 1+ goals
89%
B36 II 2+ goals
64%
B36 II 3+ goals
36%
07 Vestur II 1+ goals
65%
07 Vestur II 2+ goals
28%
07 Vestur II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

B36 II (draw refunded)
78%
07 Vestur II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B36 II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.68 · 105 matches

07 Vestur II away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B36 II attack 1.85 + 07 Vestur II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

07 Vestur II attack 0.43 + B36 II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

B36 II scores more
63%
level
20%
07 Vestur II scores more
17%

B36 II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "B36 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: B36 II 1–1 07 Vestur II

B36 II and 07 Vestur II drew 1-1 in 1. Deild on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Gundadalur in Torshavn.