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07 Vestur II vs B36 II — 1. Deild 2019

07 Vestur II
07 Vestur II
FT
3 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
B36 II
B36 II
9/6/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 15á Dungasandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

07 Vestur II27%
×Draw19%
B36 II54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

07 Vestur II
1.78
B36 II
2.52

B36 II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 102 away

creates per match

07 Vestur II
1.31
B36 II
1.54

allows per match

07 Vestur II
3.50
B36 II
2.25

finishing

07 Vestur II+0.00on par
B36 II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

07 Vestur II ↓

B36 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

07 Vestur II or draw
46%
07 Vestur II or B36 II
81%
Draw or B36 II
73%

Winning margin

07 Vestur II wins by 2+
13%
B36 II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

07 Vestur II 1+ goals
83%
07 Vestur II 2+ goals
53%
07 Vestur II 3+ goals
26%
B36 II 1+ goals
92%
B36 II 2+ goals
71%
B36 II 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

07 Vestur II (draw refunded)
34%
B36 II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

07 Vestur II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.50 · 26 matches

B36 II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.25 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

07 Vestur II attack 1.31 + B36 II defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.78

B36 II attack 1.54 + 07 Vestur II defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

07 Vestur II scores more
27%
level
19%
B36 II scores more
54%

B36 II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "B36 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: 07 Vestur II 3–5 B36 II

B36 II beat 07 Vestur II 5-3 in 1. Deild on September 6, 2022.

The match was played at á Dungasandi in Sørvágur, Vágar.