AZ Alkmaar 0–1 Anderlecht: Result & Stats

AZ Alkmaar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Anderlecht

7/15/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AZ Alkmaar47%

×Draw24%

Anderlecht29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ AlkmaarExpected goals in this matchAnderlecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.23

AZ Alkmaar

1.64

Anderlecht

1.23

AZ Alkmaar creates 33% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

2.27

creates per match

1.20

1.27

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar

2.27

Anderlecht

1.20

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar

1.27

Anderlecht

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

Anderlecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Anderlecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw

71%

AZ Alkmaar or Anderlecht

76%

Draw or Anderlecht

53%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

24%

Anderlecht wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

81%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

49%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

23%

Anderlecht 1+ goals

71%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

35%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

62%

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.27 + Anderlecht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Anderlecht attack 1.20 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more

47%

level

24%

Anderlecht scores more

29%

AZ Alkmaar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

AZ

Anderlecht

26

62

4

21

6

24

55

18

53

49

14

1

2

5

6

7

8

10

11

16

22

35

Manager: Leeroy Echteld

Manager: Vitor Bruno

Anderlecht substitutes

32Heekeren33Seghers2Keita16N'Diaye9Cvetkovic19Vazquez29Stroeykens51Sarr50Barry61NgaKafumpata79Maamar83Degreef91Bertaccini

Friendlies Clubs: AZ Alkmaar 0–1 Anderlecht

Anderlecht beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 15, 2026.

AZ Alkmaar vs Anderlecht — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: AZ Alkmaar 0–1 Anderlecht