AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Anderlecht: Result & Stats

AZ Alkmaar

Pens

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Anderlecht

M. Meerdink 120+7' (pen)

T. Reijnders 120+5' (pen)

Y. Sugawara 120+3' (pen)

J. Clasie 120+1' (pen)

V. Pavlidis 13', 5' (pen)

M. Kana 120+4' (pen)

4/20/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finalsAFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

AZ Alkmaar52%

×Draw26%

Anderlecht21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ AlkmaarExpected goals in this matchAnderlecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.84

AZ Alkmaar

1.49

Anderlecht

0.84

AZ Alkmaar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

2.24

creates per match

1.09

0.60

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar

2.24

Anderlecht

1.09

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar

0.60

Anderlecht

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

Anderlecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Anderlecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw

79%

AZ Alkmaar or Anderlecht

74%

Draw or Anderlecht

48%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

27%

Anderlecht wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

77%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

44%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

19%

Anderlecht 1+ goals

57%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

21%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

71%

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.24 + Anderlecht defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.49

Anderlecht attack 1.09 + AZ Alkmaar defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more

52%

level

26%

Anderlecht scores more

21%

AZ Alkmaar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Ryan

AZ Alkmaar · G

8.7

Match Events

5'

V. PavlidisPenalty

13'

V. Pavlidis↳ J. Odgaard

29'

Tijjani Reijnders

32'

Amadou Diawara

40'

Vangelis Pavlidis

46'

M. Lahdo← V. Pavlidis

55'

Francis Amuzu

60'

Miloš Kerkez

62'

K. Sardella← A. Murillo

76'

M. Stroeykens← L. Refaelov

80'

Sven Mijnans

90'

K. Arnstad← M. Ashimeru

101'

M. de Wit← M. Kerkez

101'

M. Meerdink← M. van Brederode

105'

N. Angulo← I. Slimani

111'

M. Kana← A. Diawara

113'

D. Mihailovic← J. Odgaard

113'

R. Bazoer← S. Mijnans

114'

Jordy Clasie

120+1'

J. ClasiePenalty

120+2'

J. VertonghenMissed penalty

120+3'

Y. SugawaraPenalty

120+4'

M. KanaPenalty

120+5'

T. ReijndersPenalty

120+6'

K. SardellaMissed penalty

120+7'

M. MeerdinkPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AZAnderlecht

Overview

55%Possession45%

27Total Shots10

3.60Expected Goals (xG)0.66

3Corners6

19Fouls7

Shots

27Total Shots10

7On Target4

12Off Target4

8Blocked2

21Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

649Total Passes526

555Accurate Passes416

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls7

5Yellow Cards2

9Offsides4