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AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC — Eredivisie 2018

AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Almere City FC
Almere City FC
12/9/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 15AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

AZ Alkmaar61%
×Draw22%
Almere City FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ Alkmaar
1.93
Almere City FC
0.92

AZ Alkmaar creates 110% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 37 away

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar
2.23
Almere City FC
0.76

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar
1.07
Almere City FC
1.62

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par
Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Almere City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw
83%
AZ Alkmaar or Almere City FC
78%
Draw or Almere City FC
39%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
36%
Almere City FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
85%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
57%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
30%
Almere City FC 1+ goals
60%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
23%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
78%
Almere City FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.07 · 136 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.23 + Almere City FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.93

Almere City FC attack 0.76 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more
61%
level
22%
Almere City FC scores more
17%

AZ Alkmaar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC

AZ Alkmaar beat Almere City FC 4-1 in Eredivisie on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar.