Almere City FC 0–0 AZ Alkmaar: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AZ Alkmaar

2/10/2024

Eredivisie · Round 21Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Almere City FC23%

×Draw23%

AZ Alkmaar54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchAZ Alkmaar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.82

Almere City FC

1.10

AZ Alkmaar

1.82

AZ Alkmaar creates 65% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 133 away

0.92

creates per match

1.70

1.94

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Almere City FC

0.92

AZ Alkmaar

1.70

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.94

AZ Alkmaar

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

AZ Alkmaar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

46%

Almere City FC or AZ Alkmaar

77%

Draw or AZ Alkmaar

77%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

9%

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

67%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

30%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

10%

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

84%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

54%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

30%

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.28 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 0.92 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.70 + Almere City FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Almere City FC scores more

23%

level

23%

AZ Alkmaar scores more

54%

AZ Alkmaar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff