Ayr Utd 2–1 Albion Rovers: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Ayr Utd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Albion Rovers

11/27/2021

FA Cup · 3rd RoundSomerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ayr Utd32%

×Draw27%

Albion Rovers41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayr UtdExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.35

Ayr Utd

1.15

Albion Rovers

1.35

Albion Rovers creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.30

creates per match

2.00

0.70

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ayr Utd

1.30

Albion Rovers

2.00

allows per match

Ayr Utd

0.70

Albion Rovers

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Albion Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw

59%

Ayr Utd or Albion Rovers

73%

Draw or Albion Rovers

68%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

13%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

68%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

32%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

11%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

74%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

39%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

44%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 1.30 + Albion Rovers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Albion Rovers attack 2.00 + Ayr Utd defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ayr Utd scores more

32%

level

27%

Albion Rovers scores more

41%

Albion Rovers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Albion Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff