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Albion Rovers vs Ayr Utd — League Cup 2018

Albion Rovers
Albion Rovers
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
7/10/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1The Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Albion Rovers17%
×Draw18%
Ayr Utd64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion Rovers
1.23
Ayr Utd
2.49

Ayr Utd creates 102% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

creates per match

Albion Rovers
1.00
Ayr Utd
2.20

allows per match

Albion Rovers
2.78
Ayr Utd
1.45

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par
Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Ayr Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw
36%
Albion Rovers or Ayr Utd
82%
Draw or Ayr Utd
83%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+
7%
Ayr Utd wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals
71%
Albion Rovers 2+ goals
35%
Albion Rovers 3+ goals
13%
Ayr Utd 1+ goals
92%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
71%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)
21%
Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 1.00 + Ayr Utd defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ayr Utd attack 2.20 + Albion Rovers defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Albion Rovers scores more
17%
level
18%
Ayr Utd scores more
64%

Ayr Utd at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Albion Rovers 0–0 Ayr Utd

Albion Rovers and Ayr Utd drew 0-0 in League Cup on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at The Reigart Stadium in Coatbridge.