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Ayamonte vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ayamonte
Ayamonte
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio Ciudad de Ayamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ayamonte47%
×Draw26%
Atlético Espeleño27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayamonte
1.53
Atlético Espeleño
1.10

Ayamonte creates 39% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 49 away

creates per match

Ayamonte
1.16
Atlético Espeleño
0.92

allows per match

Ayamonte
1.28
Atlético Espeleño
1.90

finishing

Ayamonte+0.00on par
Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayamonte ↓

Atlético Espeleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ayamonte or draw
73%
Ayamonte or Atlético Espeleño
74%
Draw or Atlético Espeleño
53%

Winning margin

Ayamonte wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ayamonte 1+ goals
78%
Ayamonte 2+ goals
45%
Ayamonte 3+ goals
20%
Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ayamonte (draw refunded)
63%
Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayamonte at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayamonte attack 1.16 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.53

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Ayamonte defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ayamonte scores more
47%
level
26%
Atlético Espeleño scores more
27%

Ayamonte at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ayamonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Ayamonte 1–0 Atlético Espeleño

Ayamonte beat Atlético Espeleño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Ayamonte in Ayamonte.