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Atlético Espeleño vs Ayamonte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ayamonte
Ayamonte
2/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 20Campo de Fútbol Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atlético Espeleño48%
×Draw27%
Ayamonte26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Espeleño
1.44
Ayamonte
0.98

Atlético Espeleño creates 47% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 32 away

creates per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.35
Ayamonte
0.81

allows per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.16
Ayamonte
1.53

finishing

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par
Ayamonte+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Espeleño ↓

Ayamonte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Espeleño or draw
74%
Atlético Espeleño or Ayamonte
73%
Draw or Ayamonte
52%

Winning margin

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
23%
Ayamonte wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
76%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
42%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
18%
Ayamonte 1+ goals
62%
Ayamonte 2+ goals
26%
Ayamonte 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
65%
Ayamonte (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Espeleño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

Ayamonte away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Espeleño attack 1.35 + Ayamonte defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ayamonte attack 0.81 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Espeleño scores more
48%
level
27%
Ayamonte scores more
26%

Atlético Espeleño at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Espeleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Atlético Espeleño 0–1 Ayamonte

Ayamonte beat Atlético Espeleño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal in Espiel.