Avispa Fukuoka 0–2 Machida Zelvia: Result & Stats

Avispa Fukuoka

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Machida Zelvia

4/13/2019

J2 League · Round 9Hakatanomori Athletic Stadium (Fukuoka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka37%

×Draw28%

Machida Zelvia35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avispa FukuokaExpected goals in this matchMachida Zelvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.14

Avispa Fukuoka

1.17

Machida Zelvia

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 127 away

1.22

creates per match

1.31

0.97

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.22

Machida Zelvia

1.31

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka

0.97

Machida Zelvia

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Machida Zelvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw

65%

Avispa Fukuoka or Machida Zelvia

72%

Draw or Machida Zelvia

63%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

15%

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

69%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

33%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

11%

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

68%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

32%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

51%

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.97 · 64 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.22 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

37%

level

28%

Machida Zelvia scores more

35%

Avispa Fukuoka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff