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Avispa Fukuoka vs Kitakyushu — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
Canc
03:30
Kitakyushu
Kitakyushu
1/30/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ikimenomori Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka42%
×Draw21%
Kitakyushu37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
2.00
Kitakyushu
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
2.75
Kitakyushu
1.50

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
2.25
Kitakyushu
1.25

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Kitakyushu+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Kitakyushu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
63%
Avispa Fukuoka or Kitakyushu
79%
Draw or Kitakyushu
58%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
23%
Kitakyushu wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
86%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
59%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
32%
Kitakyushu 1+ goals
85%
Kitakyushu 2+ goals
56%
Kitakyushu 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
53%
Kitakyushu (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Kitakyushu away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 2.75 + Kitakyushu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kitakyushu attack 1.50 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
42%
level
21%
Kitakyushu scores more
37%

Avispa Fukuoka at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Avispa Fukuoka host Kitakyushu

January 30, 2024: Avispa Fukuoka take on Kitakyushu in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Avispa Fukuoka host Kitakyushu at Ikimenomori Sports Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.