Avion Academy 0–2 Aigle Royal: Result & Stats

Avion Academy

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Aigle Royal

6/15/2025

Elite Two · Championship Group

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Avion Academy40%

×Draw27%

Aigle Royal33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avion AcademyExpected goals in this matchAigle Royal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.20

Avion Academy

1.36

Aigle Royal

1.20

Avion Academy creates 13% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

1.48

creates per match

1.29

1.10

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Avion Academy

1.48

Aigle Royal

1.29

allows per match

Avion Academy

1.10

Aigle Royal

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

Aigle Royal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw

67%

Avion Academy or Aigle Royal

73%

Draw or Aigle Royal

60%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+

19%

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals

74%

Avion Academy 2+ goals

39%

Avion Academy 3+ goals

16%

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

70%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

34%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)

55%

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.48 + Aigle Royal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Aigle Royal attack 1.29 + Avion Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avion Academy scores more

40%

level

27%

Aigle Royal scores more

33%

Avion Academy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff