Aigle Royal 0–2 Avion Academy: Result & Stats

Aigle Royal

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Avion Academy

4/30/2023

Elite One · Round 22Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aigle Royal45%

×Draw29%

Avion Academy26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aigle RoyalExpected goals in this matchAvion Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.89

Aigle Royal

1.27

Avion Academy

0.89

Aigle Royal creates 43% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 67 away

1.30

creates per match

0.82

0.95

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Aigle Royal

1.30

Avion Academy

0.82

allows per match

Aigle Royal

0.95

Avion Academy

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Avion Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw

74%

Aigle Royal or Avion Academy

71%

Draw or Avion Academy

55%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

21%

Avion Academy wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

72%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

36%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

14%

Avion Academy 1+ goals

59%

Avion Academy 2+ goals

22%

Avion Academy 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

63%

Avion Academy (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.30 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Aigle Royal defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aigle Royal scores more

45%

level

29%

Avion Academy scores more

26%

Aigle Royal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff