Avellino 1–3 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avellino

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Palermo

S. Molina 81'

I. Nestorovski 77'

E. Gnahoré 48'

S. Molina 36' (OG)

11/25/2017

Serie B · Round 16Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Avellino37%

×Draw25%

Palermo38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvellinoExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.44

Avellino

1.40

Palermo

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

1.36

creates per match

1.45

1.44

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Avellino

1.36

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Avellino

1.44

Palermo

1.43

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Avellino-0.09on par

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Avellino or draw

62%

Avellino or Palermo

75%

Draw or Palermo

63%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+

17%

Palermo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals

75%

Avellino 2+ goals

41%

Avellino 3+ goals

17%

Palermo 1+ goals

76%

Palermo 2+ goals

42%

Palermo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)

49%

Palermo (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.36 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Palermo attack 1.45 + Avellino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Avellino scores more

37%

level

25%

Palermo scores more

38%

Palermo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

S. MolinaOwn goal

42'

Thiago Cionek

45'

Fabrizio Paghera

46'

P. Szymiński← I. Chochev

48'

E. Gnahoré↳ Coronado

52'

S. Bidaoui← F. Paghera

56'

L. Laverone← R. Marchizza

63'

Asencio← M. Ardemagni

68'

Marco Migliorini

77'

I. Nestorovski↳ M. Jajalo

79'

R. Murawski← Coronado

81'

S. Molina↳ S. Bidaoui

85'

A. La Gumina← I. Nestorovski

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AvellinoPalermo

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots9

8Corners5

14Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots9

3On Target4

5Off Target5

Passing

47%Possession53%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1