Avanhard II 1–4 Alians Lypova Dolyna

Avanhard II

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Alians Lypova Dolyna

8/31/2019

Druha Liga - Group B · Group B - 6Stadion Prapor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Avanhard II14%

×Draw21%

Alians Lypova Dolyna65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avanhard IIExpected goals in this matchAlians Lypova Dolyna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

2.00

Avanhard II

0.80

Alians Lypova Dolyna

2.00

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 150% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

0.90

creates per match

2.60

1.40

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Avanhard II

0.90

Alians Lypova Dolyna

2.60

allows per match

Avanhard II

1.40

Alians Lypova Dolyna

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avanhard II+0.00on par

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avanhard II ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Avanhard II or draw

35%

Avanhard II or Alians Lypova Dolyna

79%

Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna

86%

Winning margin

Avanhard II wins by 2+

4%

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Avanhard II 1+ goals

55%

Avanhard II 2+ goals

19%

Avanhard II 3+ goals

5%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals

86%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals

59%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Avanhard II (draw refunded)

18%

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avanhard II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avanhard II attack 0.90 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 2.60 + Avanhard II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Avanhard II scores more

14%

level

21%

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more

65%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff