Alians Lypova Dolyna 2–0 Avanhard II

Alians Lypova Dolyna

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Avanhard II

10/23/2019

Druha Liga - Group B · Group B - 17Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna76%

×Draw16%

Avanhard II9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alians Lypova DolynaExpected goals in this matchAvanhard II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

0.70

Alians Lypova Dolyna

2.45

Avanhard II

0.70

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 250% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

2.50

creates per match

0.90

0.50

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna

2.50

Avanhard II

0.90

allows per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna

0.50

Avanhard II

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Avanhard II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alians Lypova Dolyna ↓

Avanhard II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Alians Lypova Dolyna or draw

91%

Alians Lypova Dolyna or Avanhard II

84%

Draw or Avanhard II

24%

Winning margin

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+

53%

Avanhard II wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals

91%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals

70%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals

44%

Avanhard II 1+ goals

50%

Avanhard II 2+ goals

16%

Avanhard II 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)

90%

Avanhard II (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alians Lypova Dolyna at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Avanhard II away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 2.50 + Avanhard II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.45

Avanhard II attack 0.90 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more

76%

level

16%

Avanhard II scores more

9%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff