Avangard Kursk 0–0 Sibir: Result & Stats

Avangard Kursk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sibir

4/28/2018

First League · Round 35Stadion Trudovye Reservy (Kursk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Avangard Kursk48%

×Draw27%

Sibir25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchSibir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.95

Avangard Kursk

1.44

Sibir

0.95

Avangard Kursk creates 52% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 32 away

1.35

creates per match

0.75

1.16

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.35

Sibir

0.75

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

1.16

Sibir

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Sibir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Sibir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

75%

Avangard Kursk or Sibir

73%

Draw or Sibir

52%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

24%

Sibir wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

76%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

42%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

18%

Sibir 1+ goals

61%

Sibir 2+ goals

25%

Sibir 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

66%

Sibir (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Sibir away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.35 + Sibir defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sibir attack 0.75 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

48%

level

27%

Sibir scores more

25%

Avangard Kursk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

D. Sinyaev← I. Kireev

58'

R. Minaev← R. Akbashev

64'

I. Tlupov← R. Bolov

71'

A. Mitasov← I. Alshin

74'

R. Belyaev← V. Azarov

90'

R. Parfinovich← M. Zhitnev

Avangard

Sibir

22

2

20

5

44

8

37

10

18

9

▼

Zhitnev

19

▼

16

71

4

24

6

▼

Akbashev

8

▼

Kireev

52

Netfullin

10

Gurfov

70

▼

Alshin

67

Fedchuk

58

▼

Bolov

Manager: K. Bidzhiyev

42'▲D. Sinyaev←▼I. Kireev

58'▲R. Minaev←▼R. Akbashev

64'▲I. Tlupov←▼R. Bolov

71'▲A. Mitasov←▼I. Alshin

Avangard Kursk substitutes

17Sinyaev77Minaev14Tlupov9Mitasov13Chagrov22Voynov84Shogenov

Manager: S. Kirsanov

74'▲R. Belyaev←▼V. Azarov

90'▲R. Parfinovich←▼M. Zhitnev

Sibir substitutes

7Belyaev17Parfinovich4Tskhovrebov11Degtyarev16Kiselev55Gladyshev96Kopaev