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Sibir vs Avangard Kursk — First League 2018

Sibir
Sibir
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
5/19/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 37Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sibir40%
×Draw32%
Avangard Kursk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sibir
1.04
Avangard Kursk
0.82

Sibir creates 27% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sibir
0.70
Avangard Kursk
0.94

allows per match

Sibir
0.70
Avangard Kursk
1.38

finishing

Sibir+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibir ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sibir or draw
72%
Sibir or Avangard Kursk
68%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
60%

Winning margin

Sibir wins by 2+
16%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sibir 1+ goals
65%
Sibir 2+ goals
28%
Sibir 3+ goals
9%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
56%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
20%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sibir (draw refunded)
59%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibir at home — creates 0.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibir attack 0.70 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.04

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Sibir defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sibir scores more
40%
level
32%
Avangard Kursk scores more
28%

Sibir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sibir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sibir vs Avangard Kursk

Sibir beat Avangard Kursk 1-0 in First League on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak.