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Avance Ezcabarte vs Atlético Artajonés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
2/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 20Campo Igueldea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Avance Ezcabarte58%
×Draw22%
Atlético Artajonés20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avance Ezcabarte
1.88
Atlético Artajonés
1.00

Avance Ezcabarte creates 88% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 34 away

creates per match

Avance Ezcabarte
1.72
Atlético Artajonés
0.68

allows per match

Avance Ezcabarte
1.31
Atlético Artajonés
2.03

finishing

Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par
Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avance Ezcabarte ↓

Atlético Artajonés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Avance Ezcabarte or draw
80%
Avance Ezcabarte or Atlético Artajonés
78%
Draw or Atlético Artajonés
42%

Winning margin

Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
34%
Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
85%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
56%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
29%
Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
74%
Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avance Ezcabarte at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Atlético Artajonés away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avance Ezcabarte attack 1.72 + Atlético Artajonés defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.88

Atlético Artajonés attack 0.68 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Avance Ezcabarte scores more
58%
level
22%
Atlético Artajonés scores more
20%

Avance Ezcabarte at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Avance Ezcabarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Avance Ezcabarte 1–1 Atlético Artajonés

Avance Ezcabarte and Atlético Artajonés drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Igueldea in Arre.