Atlético Artajonés 2–1 Avance Ezcabarte

Atlético Artajonés

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Avance Ezcabarte

9/20/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 3Estadio La Alameda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Artajonés43%

×Draw26%

Avance Ezcabarte31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético ArtajonésExpected goals in this matchAvance Ezcabarte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.21

Atlético Artajonés

1.47

Avance Ezcabarte

1.21

Atlético Artajonés creates 21% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 64 away

1.44

creates per match

0.97

1.44

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Atlético Artajonés

1.44

Avance Ezcabarte

0.97

allows per match

Atlético Artajonés

1.44

Avance Ezcabarte

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Artajonés ↓

Avance Ezcabarte →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Artajonés or draw

69%

Atlético Artajonés or Avance Ezcabarte

74%

Draw or Avance Ezcabarte

57%

Winning margin

Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+

21%

Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals

18%

Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals

70%

Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals

34%

Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)

58%

Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Artajonés at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Avance Ezcabarte away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Artajonés attack 1.44 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Avance Ezcabarte attack 0.97 + Atlético Artajonés defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Artajonés scores more

43%

level

26%

Avance Ezcabarte scores more

31%

Atlético Artajonés at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Artajonés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Atlético Artajonés 2–1 Avance Ezcabarte

Atlético Artajonés beat Avance Ezcabarte 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Alameda in Artajona.

Atlético Artajonés vs Avance Ezcabarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Atlético Artajonés 2–1 Avance Ezcabarte