Avai 3–3 Novorizontino: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avai

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Novorizontino

Rafael Bilu 90'

Paulo Vitor 90'

Luiz Henrique 23'

Leo Naldi 90' (pen)

Romulo 74'

Robson 48'

5/3/2026

Serie B · Round 7Estádio da Ressacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Avai42%

×Draw28%

Novorizontino30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.01

Avai

1.25

Novorizontino

1.01

Avai creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

1.34

creates per match

1.10

0.91

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Avai

1.34

Novorizontino

1.10

allows per match

Avai

0.91

Novorizontino

1.15

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Avai-0.10scores less

Novorizontino-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Avai or draw

70%

Avai or Novorizontino

72%

Draw or Novorizontino

58%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

19%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

71%

Avai 2+ goals

36%

Avai 3+ goals

13%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

64%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

27%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

58%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 21 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.15 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.34 + Novorizontino defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Novorizontino attack 1.10 + Avai defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avai scores more

42%

level

28%

Novorizontino scores more

30%

Avai at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55

Bruno Baldini

Avai · D

6.3

Match Events

10'

Kauan Alemao← Patrick

15'

23'

29'

30'

42'

Walace dos Santos França

42'

Guilherme Aquino← Allyson

45'

Matheus Bianqui

45'

Matheus Bianqui

46'

Juninho← Tavinho

48'

Robson↳ Romulo

57'

Sorriso← Thayllon

68'

Paulo Vitor← Luiz Henrique

68'

Rafael Bilu← Jean Lucas

72'

Carlao← Robson

74'

Romulo↳ Juninho

80'

Wesley Gasolina← Wallison

80'

F. Avenatti← Ze Ricardo

83'

Marlon← Romulo

83'

Helio Borges← Vinicius Paiva

90+10'

Guilherme Aquino

90+7'

Paulo Vitor

90+6'

Wesley Gasolina

90'

N. Castrillon←

90'

Rafael Bilu↳ Wesley Gasolina

90'

Leo NaldiPenalty

90'

Paulo Vitor

Possession

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiNovorizontino

Overview

55%Possession45%

0Total Shots0

0Fouls0

Shots

0Total Shots0

0On Target0

0Off Target0

0Blocked0

0Inside Box0

0Outside Box0

Passing

55%Possession45%

6Total Passes5

3Accurate Passes4

50%Pass Accuracy80%

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards0

Match Recap: Avai vs Novorizontino

Avai and Novorizontino drew 3-3 in Serie B on May 3, 2026.

Goals: Luiz Henrique (23'), Robson (48'), Romulo (74'), Rafael Bilu (90'), Leo Naldi (90' pen), Paulo Vitor (90').

Avai controlled possession (55%) and registered 0 shots to 0.

The match was played at Estádio da Ressacada in Florianópolis.

Avai vs Novorizontino — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Avai vs Novorizontino